Analysis of gains, losses, poverty rates were conducted (with the TOA-MD model) for two villages in the North-Western Kurunegala district- Migalewa (Maha and Yala) and Kadawaramulla (Maha). The projected climate change brings negative economic impacts for 55-74% and 77-85% farmers during Maha and Yala seasons under the five GCMs. However, for both sets, poverty rates for the future under a future production system showed a very slight decline-except under GCM: HadGEM2-ES – compared with the current climate under a future production system- Question 2. Adaptation measures led to slight (5-14% ) increase in per capita income in comparison.
Analysis based on scenarios with relatively small rainfall increases show a drop in yields in both seasons, being particularly deleterious in the Yala season. In the latter case, use of shorter-duration varieties, changes in the planting dates and improved cultivars led to substantial recovery of losses. Analysis of climate change impacts on water constrained rice agriculture is underway as this mode accounts for a large majority of cultivation.
Poster Number 101